The map of excess mortality in Europe allows me to share encouraging data on the current impact of the COVID-19 winter epidemic. These data come from the official European Union database of excess mortality, Euromomo.eu
The graphic on the left is the map of excess mortality during the 13th week of 2021, at the tail end of the 2020-2021 winter COVID-19 epidemic. At that time there was extraordinary excess mortality in Hungary, moderately high excess mortality in Estonia, France and Italy, and low excess mortality in the Netherlands, Austria and Greece. All other European countries did not experience excess mortality in the 13th week of 2021. At that time, many countries were imposing numerous restrictive measures in order to curb the spread of COVID-19.
Now that these measures have been largely removed, one can see the impact of this change.
The graphic on the right is the map of excess mortality in the 13th week of 2022, at the tail end of the 2021-2022 winter COVID-19 epidemic. At this time there is no extraordinarily high, or high, excess mortality signal anywhere in Europe. There is moderate excess mortality in the Netherlands, Belgium and Switzerland, and low excess mortality in France, Germany, Austria, Italy and Portugal. All other European countries are not reporting any excess mortality in the 13th week of 2022. There is no excess mortality signal in Malta, either. At this time, many countries have removed all, or most, of the restrictive measures. This allows us to conclude that excess mortality at this time is similar to that experienced in Europe one year ago. How about also comparing such with a map from a year prior to the COVID-19 pandemic? These two maps are also quite comparable to the map of excess mortality in Europe in week 13 of 2018, for example. I will share this map in the comments below. At that time, before the COVID-19 pandemic, there was moderate excess mortality in two European countries (Austria and Germany), and low excess mortality in nine European countries (Sweden, Denmark, the UK, the Netherlands, Belgium, France, Spain, Portugal and Hungary).
These comparisons are strongly suggestive that excess mortality in Europe now is similar to the picture from the same week in 2021, but also to the same week in 2018, before the COVID-19 pandemic. Many sources predicted a sharp increase in mortality with the removal of restrictions in many European countries, especially with the arrival of more infectious COVID-19 variants. These predictions were based on flawed models which have been proven wrong. These maps of excess mortality in Europe are further proof that such predictions are wrong.
There have been numerous studies in authoritative medical journals which have shown that restrictive measures, border screening, population screening, quarantine measures and mask mandates have not impacted COVID-19 mortality more than 0.2%, and have had minimal impacts on case numbers. These publicly-available mortality maps now strongly support these studies, and demonstrate that the removal of restrictions has not been associated with increased mortality. In fact, the current map of excess mortality in Europe is showing a slightly better picture than the same week of 2018.
Please share. It is time to seriously debate the utility of such measures.
Week 13 2018, for comparison. This is the map of excess mortality in Europe in the same period, before the COVID-19 pandemic.