A lot has been made of the recent case number increase in Malta. The trend is rather flat and I think we have reached, or are approaching, a plateau. I expect case numbers to fall as the weather warms, independent of the removal of restrictions and increased social interactions. Nonetheless, daily fluctuations are being over-interpreted in the media. The recent cold snap and the more transmissible sub-variant can possibly cause a counter-trend. This should not cause any alarm. It is clear that the exponential rise of the last weeks of last year is unlikely to recur. Malta has indeed achieved significant herd immunity, primarily through natural immunity with additional vaccine-induced immunity. In order to put case numbers in context, I share the classic Euromomo excess mortality map of Europe. There is no European country with high excess mortality or worse, currently. There is no excess mortality at all in 14 European countries, including Malta. There is moderate excess in the Netherlands and Switzerland, and low excess in seven EU countries (Estonia, Northern Ireland, Germany, Denmark, Austria, Belgium and Italy). This is normal for this time of year.
Let us emphasise that there is no excess mortality in Malta today, according to the official EU mortality database. Please share this information widely. Case numbers simply cause alarm, when we should really be looking at mortality data.